Đầu tư bất động sản nào ít rủi ro, hiệu quả năm Quý Mão?

Chia sẻ với VnExpress Về kênh đầu tư tài sản rủi ro thấp và hiệu quả trong 12 tháng tới, ông Đinh Minh Tuấn, Giám đốc khu vực phía Nam của Batdongsan cho biết, mặc dù dự báo thị trường năm 2023 vẫn còn nhiều thách thức nhưng vẫn có những loại hình. nhà đất đáp ứng tiêu chí kép an toàn và hiệu quả. Điều kiện cần và đủ để tối ưu hóa khả năng sinh lời là nắm giữ dài hạn từ 3 năm trở lên do mọi cơ hội đầu tư ngắn hạn (lướt sóng, mua nhanh bán nhanh) đã bị loại bỏ từ cuối năm ngoái.

Ghi nhận trên thị trường thứ cấp, phần lớn các trường hợp bán tài sản trong năm 2022 sẽ giảm giá bán dự kiến ​​nếu cần thu hồi dòng tiền nhanh do hiệu ứng domino của tình trạng thiếu hụt dòng tiền (kiểm soát tín dụng) và lãi suất tăng. Dư chấn này dự kiến ​​sẽ tiếp tục kéo dài sang năm 2023 và có thể giảm dần theo từng năm. Do đó, 9-12 tháng tới là thời điểm thuận lợi để mặc cả mua tài sản vì dễ đàm phán được mức giá hợp lý, khi mua nên nắm giữ, khai thác và tích lũy chứ bán tài sản ra sẽ không có lãi.

Theo ông Tuấn, tiêu chí để đầu tư an toàn được hiểu là việc mua tài sản pháp lý hoàn chỉnh với giá sát hoặc thấp hơn thị trường (không bị mua nhầm, không bị mua đắt) và có thể bán ra khi cần. thanh khoản tốt). Trong khi đó, tiêu chí hiệu quả cần xét đến khía cạnh có thể đạt được mức lợi nhuận kỳ vọng, tối ưu nhất là vừa khai thác được dòng tiền đều đặn từ cho thuê vừa có tiềm năng tăng giá trong tương lai.

Trong bối cảnh thị trường BĐS sơ cấp và thứ cấp trầm lắng, thanh khoản sụt giảm trong suốt năm 2022, dự báo thị trường năm 2023 chưa thể nhanh chóng hồi phục, quyết định đầu tư nắm giữ và khai thác tiêu dùng nên đến từ nhóm BĐS phục vụ người dân, có nhu cầu cao để sử dụng, tránh những rủi ro ngoài ý muốn.

Ông Tuấn tham chiếu đầu tư tài sản với các kênh khác gồm: chứng khoán với chỉ số VN-Index giảm 33% trong năm 2022, giá vàng SJC tại TP.HCM tăng 8,68% năm ngoái, ngoại tệ USD biến động 2,09% và lãi suất tiết kiệm tối đa 6,5% trong 12 tháng qua và lãi suất huy động hiện nay quanh mức 9-9,5%/năm. Theo đó, bước sang năm 2023, loại hình bất động sản nào có thể đạt tỷ suất lợi nhuận cao hơn các kênh này và ít rủi ro hơn có thể coi là kênh đầu tư hiệu quả. Với những tiêu chí trên, ông Tuấn cho rằng có ít nhất 4 loại hình bất động sản mà nhà đầu tư cá nhân có thể tham khảo.

nhà mặt phố

Townhouses are also known as townhouses with facades: in Ho Chi Minh City, this type of real estate has yielded an average rental yield of 1-2% a year in the past 12 months and the highest at 2.9% a year. Besides the ability to increase prices by 15-16% a year, the total profit margin is estimated at 18.9% a year. This profit zone has been recorded since 2022 and is likely to continue into 2023.

However, this is an asset with a very large value, up to tens of billions of dong per product, so liquidity will be slow and picky for customers to buy and resell. Therefore, to optimize profits, when deciding to invest in townhouses, you must hold long-term assets for 3-4 years or more and only prioritize assets with complete legal status.

During the holding period, investors can take advantage of stable cash flow from leasing the premises. Batdongsan data for 2022 shows that the level of interest expressed in online searches for townhouses for rent in Ho Chi Minh City increased by 263% compared to the previous year. This is a signal that the rental market for this type of property has a positive development, has not yet returned to its golden age in 2019 and earlier, but has recovered compared to the explosive pandemic years of 2020-2021.

If investors are in the capital market, in 2023, they can bargain to buy front-end townhouses at a “softer” price than the peak 1-2 years ago, and patiently wait for the right opportunity when the real estate market is ready. liquidity improves in the next few years, there will be many selling opportunities to take profit.

Single house

Single-family houses, also known as alley townhouses in Ho Chi Minh City, have a rental yield of 2-2.6% a year, the ability to increase prices by 10% a year, total investment profit margin for the year. recently reached 12.6%. This profit margin can continue to maintain in 2023 as the number of single-family rental searches in 2022 increased by 157% compared to 2021, indicating a strong increase in interest in this rental property, rental demand pretty big.

The advantage of the individual house type is that the total asset value is moderate, ranging from 3-5 billion VND or a slightly higher segment costs about 6-8 billion VND per unit, so the capital is small, so it will not be picky compared to the customers. townhouse frontage up to tens of billions of dong a unit. However, in the context of the market in 2023, there are still many difficulties in liquidity, if you invest money, you must hold long-term assets for 2-3 years or more to optimize profits.

When buying a separate house, it is necessary to carry out the steps of price appraisal, check the planning (because often entangled with the planning of alleys and roads) and only buy houses that have certificates of land use rights and house ownership.

Motel

Hostels and rooms for rent are a type of property that serves the essential needs of the vast majority of ordinary workers to the emerging middle class. In 2022, this property will achieve a rental yield of 4-5% depending on the location and increase in value by 15% if it is still held in the long-term. Total profit margin for the whole year of this asset class reached 19-20% estimated by cash flow value. Interest in rental properties on online real estate marketplaces has increased by 84% over the past year and is expected to continue to grow over the next 12 months.

The advantage of the hostel is that the rental segment is affordable, less picky, and the land value of the hostel also increases over time if accumulated for a long time. The point to note is that in order to payback when investing in this inn, it often takes time to depreciate the investment rate, then start to make a profit, the right time to reach the optimal profit margin usually takes 3-5 years even. even longer depending on the mid-end or affordable segment.

The land in the suburbs

The suburban land is an asset that only increases in price thanks to future expectations, having experienced many fluctuations in 2022 along with a sharp price drop and low liquidity. In the past 12 months, land plots in the suburban districts of Ho Chi Minh City such as Binh Chanh, Nha Be, Can Gio, Hoc Mon and Cu Chi have experienced a local decrease in prices in some areas with an adjustment margin of 10-25% depending on the size of the land. area.

Batdongsan’s data also shows that land plots in provinces adjacent to Saigon such as Binh Duong have been flat, Binh Phuoc has decreased by 8% in the period from December 2021 to December 2022, and land plots in Long An have been flat throughout the period. period from March 2022 to December 2022. Land plots in the south decreased in price while land plots in the northern fringes including Bac Giang, Quang Ninh, Hung Yen and Hoa Binh provinces all dropped by 7-22% in the last 9 months of 2022.

The downtrend of the land plot market in the periphery is forecasted to continue in 2023 with areas where virtual fever has occurred. Therefore, the next 12 months are the right time to bargain to buy land in the suburbs and then accumulate assets (accumulate assets), but 2023 is not a good time to sell.

The land has no function of consumption for the people’s livelihood, so it is impossible or difficult to lease. If the land is leased, the income is also very low, insignificant compared to the investment costs. Therefore, if buying land, priority should be given to having a red book (land use right certificate), choosing a suburban area with synchronous infrastructure connection or near a residential area or an industrial park. The purpose is to be able to take advantage of the opportunity to build a house or a room for rent on the land, which will increase the opportunity for consumption, change the status of the property from a potential risk to a stable and safe one.

With the development of the land plot market in the periphery still uncertain in the coming quarters, there are still many bargaining opportunities to buy land with good connectivity at a cheaper price than 6-12 months ago. After purchasing land, it is recommended to build works on the land to lease, exploit and hold for 3-5 years or more, which can optimize gross profit from leasing and increase the minimum land value by 15 years or more. % per year, the longer you hold, the more profit you gain over time.

According to Mr. Tuan, the above 4 groups of properties have gross profit margin from leasing and increasing value over time every year reaching the threshold of 12.6-20%, outperforming securities, gold and foreign channels. currency and savings.

Particularly for the group of apartment properties In Ho Chi Minh City, if the investment only achieves a rental rate of about 4% a year, the ability to increase value in 2022 is only 2-4%, even there are many cases of price reduction due to liquidation. or sell soon. Therefore, last year’s gross profit of this asset group was at most 8%, even lower, still inferior to gold investment and savings channels.

On the other hand, the purchasing power of apartments in both the primary and secondary markets dropped sharply last year, so the weakness lies in the liquidity that has not yet recovered in 2023, even liquidity may be challenged. longer than the group of house assets attached to land. Therefore, apartments have not yet reached the optimal double criterion of safe and effective investment if compared with other investment channels on the market.

In fact, apartments are gradually becoming a type of property bought for use and consumption rather than for investment purposes, although the rental capacity tends to increase again compared to before the Covid-19 pandemic. 19 boom in 2020-2021. If the cash flow is modest, less than 2 billion VND and still interested in the apartment investment channel, you can choose the affordable apartment segment, but the necessary and sufficient condition is that the house must be used immediately or ready for exploitation. to rent.

Mr. Tuan recommends that investors in the year of the Rabbit, if they decide to choose 4 groups of properties that meet safety and efficiency criteria, including townhouses, single-family houses, motels and land plots to “send gold”, should pay attention to careful legal control, then consider price, location, infrastructure… Don’t buy properties just because the price is too cheap, but prioritize location and liquidity (check if you’re done buying until you’re done buying) for sale, can it be sold?)

In 2023, the real estate market is expected to still be thirsty for cash, so investors need to plan long-term cash flows, have a strategy to buy and hold long-term assets to limit risks.

Mr. Le Quoc Kien, an independent real estate expert also said that difficulties and challenges are still waiting for the real estate market in 2023, so the investment trend is prioritizing safety and optimizing cash flow. Mining on real estate will take the throne.

Mr. Kien recommends that investors should choose products that can be liquidated quickly and easily. For good liquidity, such products must have clear legal status and can be used immediately, such as houses that can be lived in or rented immediately, factories that can be used for production, business or lease, land being exploited. exploiting agricultural production and business for good efficiency, or rental houses with regular income…

An experience to assess the safety of real estate is the ability of banks to lend when mortgaged with that real estate, because banks themselves also have a hedging coefficient for themselves when lending. get a loan. For example, an asset of VND 10 billion is valued at VND 9 billion and a loan of over VND 6-7 billion is a good asset (usually banks value 80-90% of the market price and lend 70-90% of this valuation). On the contrary, it is also an asset of 10 billion, but the bank only lends 2-3 billion, even only lending at the state compensation price, which proves that the safety level of real estate is not high, so the bank has certain precautions.

“Even if there is no need to borrow or only borrow a low proportion of the asset value, going to the bank to appraise the loan application is an effective trick to reduce risks,” said Mr. Kien.

In the current “fresh money” difficult period, real estate with cash flow income will also be preferred over real estate without. Properties with an annual rental yield (understood as a math to compare cash flow income to property value) less than 3% a year are low efficiency, 3-4.5% a year are efficient. average, good 4.5-5.5% and excellent 6-8% or more. However, it is necessary to distinguish the maximum mining revenue – the number often mentioned by sellers and brokers – to push the property value with “actual profit” – which is the actual pocket income after minus all costs.

Mr. Kien also affirmed that in 2023, there will be no opportunities for surfing investment school because market liquidity has not recovered and short-term investment risks are increasing due to high interest rates and credit control for real estate. is still going on. Therefore, it is best to use idle cash flow, not borrowing when buying assets. In case investors want to borrow, they must plan a source of money to pay interest and should only borrow up to 20-30% of the property’s value to minimize risks.

Vu Le